China’s economic balancing act: Rising risks of a cyclical shock in 2027
China’s economy is entering a critical phase. After years of strong growth, structural weaknesses — from excessive debt and industrial overcapacity to demographic decline and trade tensions — are now converging. According to TAC ECONOMICS, these imbalances heighten the risk of a cyclical shock by 2027, as the country struggles to rebalance from investment-driven to consumption-led growth. With financial leverage at record levels and geopolitical pressures mounting, China’s economic risks could reshape global markets over the coming years.
Emerging Markets in August 2025: Rising Early Warning Signals
TAC ECONOMICS’ August 2025 Monthly Comments highlight new vulnerabilities across several emerging markets, as weakening growth, restrictive trade measures, and geopolitical tensions reshape the global risk landscape.
US Tariffs 2025: Countdown to August 1 and a New Era of Global Trade
As the clock ticks toward August 1, 2025, the world stands at the edge of a trade paradigm shift. At 12:01 a.m., the Executive Order suspending tariffs above 10% expires, ushering in “reciprocal tariffs”—a system meant to mirror the trade barriers imposed on U.S. exports. But what lies ahead is far from a stable framework. Instead, global businesses face legal uncertainty, fragmented negotiations, and a deeper restructuring of global supply chains.