China’s economic balancing act: Rising risks of a cyclical shock in 2027

China’s economy is entering a critical phase. After years of strong growth, structural weaknesses — from excessive debt and industrial overcapacity to demographic decline and trade tensions — are now converging. According to TAC ECONOMICS, these imbalances heighten the risk of a cyclical shock by 2027, as the country struggles to rebalance from investment-driven to consumption-led growth. With financial leverage at record levels and geopolitical pressures mounting, China’s economic risks could reshape global markets over the coming years.

Tarifs douaniers américains 2025 : compte à rebours jusqu'au 1er août et nouvelle ère du commerce mondial

As the clock ticks toward August 1, 2025, the world stands at the edge of a trade paradigm shift. At 12:01 a.m., the Executive Order suspending tariffs above 10% expires, ushering in “reciprocal tariffs”—a system meant to mirror the trade barriers imposed on U.S. exports. But what lies ahead is far from a stable framework. Instead, global businesses face legal uncertainty, fragmented negotiations, and a deeper restructuring of global supply chains.