In April 2026, the global macroeconomic environment shifts. Whereas our baseline scenario had previously relied on gradual normalization, the latest data lead us to revise this assessment: the persistence regime now emerges as the dominant framework.
At the heart of this shift lies a key factor: the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is keeping the price of Brent crude oil sustainably above $100 per barrel. This energy supply shock is profoundly reshaping the dynamics of inflation, monetary policy, and growth on a global scale.
The failure of oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to normalize is anchoring economies in an environment of prolonged tension. Our tipping-point indicators are converging: no credible signs of de-escalation at this stage, but no systemic breakdown either.
Three major implications now shape our scenario:
In this context, our baseline scenario of persistence now carries a 50% probability, compared to 35% for a return to normalization and 15% for a disruption scenario.
The U.S. economy posted robust growth in Q1 2026 (+2.0% annualized), but this performance relies heavily on transitory factors.
The rebound in public spending, particularly following the government shutdown and driven by defense spending, is contributing significantly to growth. At the same time, investment in technology, fueled by the artificial intelligence cycle, remains the primary private-sector driver, with exceptional growth.
However, domestic fundamentals are showing signs of slowing:
The labor market remains seemingly strong, but the dynamics are shifting. The decline in net immigration and the adjustment of the employment equilibrium threshold are easing wage pressures, limiting second-round inflationary effects for now.
On the price front, the rise in inflation is largely concentrated in energy. Underlying indicators remain subdued, but the spread of the shock will depend on changes in margins and expectations.
TAC ECONOMICS’ view: The Fed is locked into a constrained status quo. The main risk lies not in the level of rates, but in the growing uncertainty surrounding their trajectory, against a backdrop of shifting monetary communication.
With growth limited to +0.1% in Q1 2026, the eurozone is entering this shock from a position of relative weakness.
April data point to a rapid deterioration:
The rebound in the manufacturing sector should be interpreted with caution, as it primarily reflects preemptive stockpiling in response to rising prices.
France illustrates this fragility: GDP stagnation masks one-off effects, but underlying momentum remains constrained.
On the inflation front, the rise is driven by energy, with significant variation across countries. Wages do not yet show significant pressure, but industrial selling prices are beginning to reflect the shock.
TAC ECONOMICS’ view: The ECB faces a credibility trade-off. In this context, a preemptive rate hike in June appears to be the most likely scenario, in order to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.
The United Kingdom appears to be the developed economy most exposed to the persistence regime.
The growth observed at the start of the year is misleading and largely due to seasonal effects. The underlying momentum is weaker:
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Against a backdrop of rising inflation, real wages are trending downward.
The energy shock is feeding through to inflation particularly quickly, especially via fuel and household energy costs. Developments regarding the price cap (Ofgem) will be decisive for the trajectory in the coming months.
Added to these economic vulnerabilities is a political risk, which could increase the volatility of sovereign bond yields.
TAC ECONOMICS’ view: The Bank of England could implement a one-off tightening before pausing. The United Kingdom exhibits the most acute stagflationary profile among major developed economies.
Japan stands out for its limited sensitivity to the oil shock in terms of growth, thanks to significant fiscal support.
Government measures—energy subsidies, mobilization of reserves—effectively cushion the external impact.
Japanese inflation is primarily driven by domestic dynamics, fueled by wage increases resulting from Shunto negotiations. Indicators adjusted for the effects of public policy show core inflation now exceeding 2%.
The Bank of Japan is pursuing a gradual normalization, amid growing pressures on:
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TAC ECONOMICS View: The monetary policy path remains contingent on wage dynamics. The main risk lies in an adjustment that comes too late, which could fuel a feedback loop of imported inflation and yen depreciation.
The shift to a regime of persistence marks a break in the overall macro-financial dynamics.
The environment is now characterized by:
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In this context, economic analysis must fully incorporate the interactions between geopolitical, energy, and macroeconomic factors.
This is at the heart of the approach developed by TAC ECONOMICS, which combines fundamental analysis and quantitative tools to anticipate tipping points in an environment that has become structurally more uncertain.
