Cyclical analysis

TAC ECONOMICS provides regular analytics on the 18-month economic outlook for developed economies, mainly Eurozone, UK, United States, Japan (quarterly scenarios, monthly updates, weekly briefs), including forecasts on key indicators (GDP, inflation, interest rates…) plus a focus on key global economic drivers and oil prices prospects. The publications are combined with frequent interactions with the team (hotline, one-to-one presentation, prompt response to specific inquiries…).

Some insights from our last Quarterly Scenario for 2024

• In 2024, we anticipate a convergence of growth cycles among mature economies, leading to a soft landing with declining inflation and progressive policy rate reversals. However, this assumes no sudden shocks, though such events are increasingly likely. The US economy remains resilient, while the EU, UK, and Japan are expected to recover throughout 2024, followed by a resurgence led by the US in 2025.
• Disinflation is encountering persistent inflation in services, posing challenges to achieving a 2% inflation trajectory. Central banks are cautious, adopting a data-dependent approach, which may lead to significant swings in financial markets. The Fed may delay rate cuts until a deceleration in service prices is observed, aiming for a 4% Fed Fund target rate by mid-2025. The ECB and BoE are also expected to adjust gradually.
• The potential for bond yield decreases is limited, with rates expected to converge towards higher levels by end-2024. Structural shifts and significant risks characterize the 2024-2025 scenario, with long-term trends suggesting a higher interest rate environment in the coming decade.

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