China’s economic balancing act: Rising risks of a cyclical shock in 2027

China’s economy is entering a critical phase. After years of strong growth, structural weaknesses — from excessive debt and industrial overcapacity to demographic decline and trade tensions — are now converging. According to TAC ECONOMICS, these imbalances heighten the risk of a cyclical shock by 2027, as the country struggles to rebalance from investment-driven to consumption-led growth. With financial leverage at record levels and geopolitical pressures mounting, China’s economic risks could reshape global markets over the coming years.