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Extract from our May Monthly Comments – Country Focus on Senegal

Following the recent presidential election in Senegal, questions arise regarding the challenges the new authorities might face in implementing their policies.

• Our country-risk metrics indicate that Senegal presents a highly asymmetrical situation compared to other Sub-Saharan African countries, characterized by very high Economic & Financial Risk ratings, combined with a much more favorable Political & Governance Risk ratings, making it a unique case in the region.
• The new authorities have an ambitious economic program, but its implementation could face significant constraints, particularly concerning monetary sovereignty’, debt and external deficit management, and resource mobilization.
• Forecasts for 2025 predict robust economic growth attributed to the surge in oil production, yet neither this growth nor the increase in oil production are likely to fully address the current account deficit. Among other factors, the high risk of illiquidity should prevent Senegal from exiting the CFA Franc zone in the short term.

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