Oil Price Models

Objective & Purpose
Provide a short- to long-term outlook for oil prices allowing for the possibility to run different simulation exercises according to cyclical perspectives.
TAC uses two different approaches:
Medium-term
This approach relies on a strong theoretical background to determine the price of finite resources.
The model provides yearly average prices of Brent,
from a series of relations and economic determinants. TAC uses
econometric techniques (co-integration, error correction model), over a very long period.
The variables are grouped into three distinct components:
TAC provides to customer: |
Observed |
|
---|---|---|
2007 |
70$ |
72$ |
2008 |
82$ |
97$ |
2009 |
55$ |
62$ |
2010 |
74$ |
80$ |
2011 |
109$ |
111$ |
2012 |
112$ |
112$ |
Short-term
This approach relies on an efficient statistical calibration in terms of advanced indicators for future dynamics. TAC combines many data mining models (fundamental and market variables), including:
TAC provides to customer: |
Prediction vs actual |
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