{"id":29398,"date":"2026-04-29T12:54:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T10:54:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/?p=29398"},"modified":"2026-05-07T16:31:40","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T14:31:40","slug":"2026-choc-petrolier-iranien-stagflation-mondiale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/2026-iranian-oil-shock-global-stagflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Le choc p\u00e9trolier iranien de 2026 : un test de r\u00e9sistance mondial pour l'\u00e9conomie mondiale"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"29398\" class=\"elementor elementor-29398\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3936f2de e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3936f2de\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fcd77cf e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fcd77cf\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7253d407 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7253d407\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The 2026 Iranian Oil Shock: A Global Stress Test for the World Economy<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7ffc341a elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"7ffc341a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d9d37b8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"d9d37b8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-098b2f8 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/2026\/04\/29\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-calendar\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-date\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<time>avril 29, 2026<\/time>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-d3c01a0 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"about\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-tags\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-terms\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/category\/emerging-markets\/\" class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list-item\">Emerging Markets<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/category\/global-economy\/\" class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list-item\">Global Economy<\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9395f23 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9395f23\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_motion_fx_scrolling&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_effect&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_range&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:{&quot;start&quot;:50,&quot;end&quot;:100}},&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_direction&quot;:&quot;out-in&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:4,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;background_motion_fx_devices&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;,&quot;mobile&quot;]}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5a0edc5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5a0edc5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"598\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-1024x766.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-29321\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-1024x766.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-768x575.jpg 768w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-1536x1149.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-2048x1532.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eefa04b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"eefa04b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-faf90b5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"faf90b5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The outbreak of the Iranian conflict in February 2026 triggered one of the most severe disruptions to global energy markets since the 1973 oil crisis. With the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which around 20% of global oil supply transits, oil prices surged dramatically, rising from about USD 60 per barrel in late 2025 to peaks above USD 110 by March 2026.<\/p><p>This shock immediately raised a fundamental question for policymakers and market participants alike: how will such a disruption propagate through the global economy?<\/p><p>A recent working paper by TAC ECONOMICS provides a detailed and rigorous answer. Using a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive (BGVAR) model covering 14 major economies, the study quantifies the macroeconomic consequences of this oil shock across growth, inflation, and monetary policy.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-53a3ac8 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"53a3ac8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-35af1b2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"35af1b2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">A Global Model for a Global Shock<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-847fa38 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"847fa38\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Unlike traditional country-by-country approaches, the BGVAR framework explicitly captures the interconnected nature of the global economy. Each country is modeled not in isolation, but as part of a network linked through trade and financial channels.<\/p><p>The model includes both advanced economies (United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Japan) and major emerging markets (including China, India, Brazil, and Russia), representing roughly 75% of global GDP.<\/p><p>A key methodological choice is to treat oil prices, specifically Brent crude, as an exogenous global variable. This allows the model to isolate the pure effect of the geopolitical shock, independent of endogenous demand dynamics.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8443d10 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8443d10\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d8ee96f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d8ee96f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Three Key Transmission Channels<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f4e2bec elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f4e2bec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The analysis highlights three major channels through which the oil shock spreads globally:<\/p><p><strong>1.Inflation: Rapid but Uneven Pass-Through<\/strong><\/p><p>The oil shock generates an almost universal increase in inflation. However, the magnitude varies significantly across countries.<\/p><ul><li>In advanced economies, inflation rises quickly but remains relatively contained. For example, the United States sees a cumulative increase of around 0.3 percentage points following a standard oil shock.<\/li><li>In emerging markets, the effect is stronger and more volatile. India, for instance, experiences one of the largest inflationary responses due to its high dependence on oil imports.<\/li><\/ul><p>Structural factors, such as energy dependence, subsidy regimes, and exchange rate sensitivity, play a crucial role in shaping these differences.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-41d14b8 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"41d14b8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2a5a4a7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2a5a4a7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">2. Growth: A Broad-Based Drag<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f3429f3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f3429f3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The impact on economic growth is predominantly negative, especially for oil-importing economies.<\/p><ul><li>Advanced economies like the euro area and Japan experience persistent output losses due to reduced purchasing power and weaker external demand.<\/li><li>China faces one of the largest cumulative growth losses, reflecting both its energy dependence and its central role in global trade.<\/li><\/ul><p>In contrast, oil-exporting countries such as Russia initially benefit from higher revenues. However, these gains tend to fade over time as global demand weakens.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c81fa93 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"c81fa93\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7d49aef elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7d49aef\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">3. Monetary Policy: A Conditional Response<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e636eb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5e636eb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Central banks generally exhibit a tightening bias in response to rising inflation, particularly in emerging markets.<\/p><p>However, for a moderate oil shock, the estimated rate increases remain limited, often below the threshold of a standard policy move.<\/p><p>The real challenge emerges when the shock persists, forcing central banks to choose between controlling inflation and supporting growth.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f367282 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"f367282\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9f1527a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9f1527a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Scenario Analysis: Duration Is Everything<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a3143e1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a3143e1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>To account for uncertainty surrounding the conflict, the study develops three scenarios based on different oil price trajectories:<\/p><p><strong>Scenario 1: Normalization<\/strong><\/p><p>A rapid de-escalation leads to a temporary spike in oil prices, followed by stabilization. The macroeconomic impact remains limited, with only short-lived inflation and modest growth effects.<\/p><p><strong>Scenario 2: Persistence<\/strong><\/p><p>A prolonged disruption keeps oil prices elevated for several quarters. In this case, second-round effects emerge:<\/p><ul><li>Inflation becomes more persistent<\/li><li>Growth losses deepen significantly<\/li><li>Central banks begin tightening more aggressively<\/li><\/ul><p>For example, cumulative inflation in the United States rises to around 1.4 percentage points, while growth losses intensify across major economies.<\/p><p><strong>Scenario 3: Breakdown<\/strong><\/p><p>A severe escalation involving destruction of energy infrastructure pushes oil prices to extreme levels (up to USD 160 per barrel).<\/p><p>This scenario produces a full stagflationary shock:<\/p><ul><li>Inflation surges well above central bank targets<\/li><li>Growth contracts sharply across most economies<\/li><li>Monetary policy faces a classic stagflation dilemma<\/li><\/ul><p>China\u2019s GDP, for instance, could decline by up to 2.6 percentage points cumulatively, while inflation spikes globally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8920447 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8920447\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-463bcba elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"463bcba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">A Key Insight: The Non-Linearity of Duration<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-10566c6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"10566c6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>One of the most important findings of the paper is that the duration of the shock matters more than its initial magnitude.<\/p><p>A disruption lasting one quarter remains manageable. But once it extends beyond that threshold, the economic impact increases disproportionately. This is because expectations adjust: firms and households begin to treat the shock as persistent, triggering second-round effects in wages and prices.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-64d1902 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"64d1902\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fa8fe2d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"fa8fe2d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Policy Implications<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-be6b27a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"be6b27a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The study provides several key takeaways for policymakers:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Central banks<\/strong> should focus less on the initial price spike and more on indicators of persistence, such as inflation expectations and wage dynamics.<\/li><li><strong>Emerging markets<\/strong> face greater risks due to stronger inflation pass-through and weaker policy credibility.<\/li><li><strong>Fiscal policy<\/strong> is constrained, particularly in highly indebted economies, limiting governments\u2019 ability to cushion the shock.<\/li><li><strong>Market participants<\/strong> should closely monitor the duration of disruptions, as this is the primary driver of macroeconomic outcomes.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-597e3ad e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"597e3ad\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dc2e21e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"dc2e21e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Conclusion<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2b4a794 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2b4a794\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The 2026 Iranian oil shock illustrates the importance of global interdependencies in shaping economic outcomes. By capturing trade linkages and cross-country spillovers, the BGVAR framework reveals a critical insight: in a deeply interconnected world, no economy is insulated from large geopolitical shocks.<\/p><p>Ultimately, the difference between a manageable disruption and a global stagflationary crisis depends less on the initial shock itself than on how long it lasts\u2014and how economic agents respond to it.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7a3f619 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"7a3f619\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d7f8350 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d7f8350\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8fe5339 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8fe5339\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-01bd532 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"01bd532\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Latest posts<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c66e620 elementor-grid-3 elementor-grid-tablet-2 elementor-grid-mobile-1 elementor-posts--thumbnail-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-posts\" data-id=\"c66e620\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;classic_columns&quot;:&quot;3&quot;,&quot;classic_columns_tablet&quot;:&quot;2&quot;,&quot;classic_columns_mobile&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;classic_row_gap&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:35,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;classic_row_gap_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;classic_row_gap_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"posts.classic\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-posts-container elementor-posts elementor-posts--skin-classic elementor-grid\" role=\"list\">\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-29398 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-emerging-markets category-global-economy\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/2026-iranian-oil-shock-global-stagflation\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-scaled-e1777386862695-500x267.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-29321\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-scaled-e1777386862695-500x267.jpg 500w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-scaled-e1777386862695-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/47313974-iran-10157724-scaled-e1777386862695.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a 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\u00e9mergentes\u00a0: dans le tourbillon g\u00e9opolitique et commercial\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tavril 9, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/perspectives-economiques-economies-emergentes\/\" aria-label=\"En savoir plus sur Webinaire\u00a0sur les\u00a0Economies \u00e9mergentes\u00a0: dans le tourbillon g\u00e9opolitique et commercial\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-29076 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-media\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326-500x267.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-29077\" alt=\"Lea Dauphas sur le plateau BFM 130326\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326-500x267.jpg 500w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tConflit au Moyen-Orient, p\u00e9trole et inflation\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tmars 13, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" aria-label=\"En savoir plus sur Conflit au Moyen-Orient, p\u00e9trole et inflation\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le choc p\u00e9trolier iranien 2026 et la fermeture du d\u00e9troit d'Ormuz ont entra\u00een\u00e9 une forte hausse des prix de l'\u00e9nergie et raviv\u00e9 les craintes d'une stagflation mondiale. \u00c0 l'aide d'un mod\u00e8le BGVAR couvrant les principales \u00e9conomies mondiales, cette \u00e9tude analyse l'impact sur l'inflation, la croissance et la politique mon\u00e9taire, en mettant en \u00e9vidence un facteur cl\u00e9 : la dur\u00e9e du choc.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":29321,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-emerging-markets","category-global-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2026 Iranian Oil Shock: Inflation, Growth and Global Stagflation Risks | TAC 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