{"id":27063,"date":"2025-09-09T11:32:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T09:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/?p=27063"},"modified":"2026-02-10T17:04:06","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T16:04:06","slug":"china-cyclical-shock-risk-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/china-cyclical-shock-risk-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s economic balancing act: Rising risks of a cyclical shock in 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"27063\" class=\"elementor elementor-27063\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3936f2de e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3936f2de\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fcd77cf e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fcd77cf\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7253d407 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7253d407\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">China\u2019s economic balancing act: Rising risks of a cyclical shock in 2027<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7ffc341a elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"7ffc341a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d9d37b8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"d9d37b8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-098b2f8 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/2025\/09\/09\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-calendar\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-date\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<time>septembre 9, 2025<\/time>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-d3c01a0 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"about\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-tags\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-terms\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/category\/china\/\" class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list-item\">China<\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9395f23 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9395f23\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_motion_fx_scrolling&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_effect&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_range&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:{&quot;start&quot;:50,&quot;end&quot;:100}},&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_direction&quot;:&quot;out-in&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:4,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;background_motion_fx_devices&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;,&quot;mobile&quot;]}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5a0edc5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5a0edc5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/China-102025.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-27065\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/China-102025.jpg 600w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/China-102025-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/China-102025-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eefa04b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"eefa04b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c6f8f5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5c6f8f5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">1. China\u2019s growing economic imbalances<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-faf90b5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"faf90b5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>China stands at the crossroads of global geopolitics and economic transformation. After decades of rapid expansion, the country now faces mounting internal challenges: <strong>aging demographics, a bloated real estate sector, industrial overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and fiscal degradation<\/strong>.<\/p><p>According to TAC ECONOMICS, these structural weaknesses have led to a <strong>WatchList Indication on Economic Activity<\/strong> for 2026\u20132028 \u2014 signaling an <strong>increased risk of a major cyclical shock around 2027<\/strong>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-53a3ac8 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"53a3ac8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0d4cce4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"0d4cce4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">2. Geopolitics and Trade: Tensions heating up<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-847fa38 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"847fa38\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The ongoing <strong>US-China strategic rivalry<\/strong> continues to dominate the global economic landscape. Under President Donald Trump\u2019s second administration, trade tensions flared again in early 2025, with <strong>tariffs climbing above 125%<\/strong> before easing slightly.<\/p><p>While some Chinese exporters managed to adapt \u2014 notably through <strong>trade diversion and increased market share in Southeast Asia and Europe<\/strong> \u2014 exports to the US fell <strong>23% year-on-year<\/strong> between April and July 2025.<\/p><p>Even if a new trade deal emerges, tariffs are unlikely to return to pre-2020 levels, meaning that China\u2019s export-led model faces lasting constraints. The growing technological rift \u2014 with US restrictions on AI chips and semiconductor equipment and China\u2019s retaliatory curbs on rare earth exports \u2014 further compounds uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-21ecd67 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"21ecd67\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-42c0ca3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"42c0ca3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">3. Economic growth under pressure<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c0d9bae elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c0d9bae\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Despite these external shocks, <strong>China\u2019s GDP growth<\/strong> held at <strong>+5.4% in Q1 and +5.2% in Q2 2025<\/strong>, thanks to fiscal and monetary support. The People\u2019s Bank of China implemented modest easing, cutting reserve requirements and interest rates, while fiscal spending pushed the deficit to -8.6% of GDP.<\/p><p>However, TAC ECONOMICS highlights that producer price deflation and weak manufacturing activity reveal underlying fragility. With industrial overcapacity and sluggish domestic demand, structural rebalancing toward consumption remains elusive.<\/p><p>Their models project a <strong>decline in trend growth to around 4.0\u20134.5%<\/strong>, with GDP expected to average <strong>+4.4% in H2 2025<\/strong> and <strong>+3.9% in 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8443d10 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8443d10\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d8ee96f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d8ee96f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">4. Rising financial risks and the debt overhang<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f4e2bec elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f4e2bec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>China\u2019s <strong>total credit financing<\/strong> \u2014 spanning private and government sectors \u2014 reached <strong>330% of GDP by mid-2025<\/strong>, up 50 percentage points since 2022. This unprecedented leverage amplifies the risk of <strong>financial instability<\/strong>.<\/p><p>TAC ECONOMICS\u2019 <strong>Economic &amp; Financial Risk Rating<\/strong> has deteriorated sharply, rising nearly <strong>10 points in just five quarters<\/strong>, reflecting mounting strain in both cyclical momentum and the banking system.<\/p><p>Moreover, TAC\u2019s AI-driven early warning models have triggered a <strong>WatchList Indication<\/strong>, pointing to a <strong>high probability of a systemic shock by 2027<\/strong>. Such a downturn could bring:<\/p><ul><li>A wave of <strong>corporate and local government defaults<\/strong><\/li><li>A <strong>sharp contraction in domestic demand<\/strong><\/li><li>Potential <strong>currency weakening<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-597e3ad e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"597e3ad\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dc2e21e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"dc2e21e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">5. Outlook: Managing the coming turbulence<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2b4a794 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2b4a794\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>China\u2019s policymakers face a delicate balancing act \u2014 <strong>stimulating domestic consumption<\/strong>, <strong>containing debt<\/strong>, and <strong>navigating geopolitical volatility<\/strong>. If managed prudently, the turbulence may remain controlled. If not, 2027 could bring the country\u2019s most severe <strong>cyclical correction<\/strong> since the 2008 global financial crisis.<\/p><p>As TAC ECONOMICS concludes, Beijing\u2019s ability to \u201cmaster this cooking dish\u201d will determine whether China serves up a <strong>carefully managed slowdown<\/strong> \u2014 or a <strong>burnt recipe of financial and political instability<\/strong>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7a3f619 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"7a3f619\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d7f8350 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d7f8350\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8fe5339 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8fe5339\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-01bd532 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"01bd532\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Latest posts<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c66e620 elementor-grid-3 elementor-grid-tablet-2 elementor-grid-mobile-1 elementor-posts--thumbnail-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-posts\" data-id=\"c66e620\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;classic_columns&quot;:&quot;3&quot;,&quot;classic_columns_tablet&quot;:&quot;2&quot;,&quot;classic_columns_mobile&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;classic_row_gap&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:35,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;classic_row_gap_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;classic_row_gap_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"posts.classic\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-posts-container elementor-posts elementor-posts--skin-classic elementor-grid\" role=\"list\">\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-29076 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-media\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" 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inflation\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tmars 13, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" aria-label=\"En savoir plus sur Conflit au Moyen-Orient, p\u00e9trole et inflation\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-28475 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-others\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-500x267.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-28491\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-500x267.jpg 500w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tEmerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tmars 6, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" aria-label=\"En savoir plus sur Emerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-28287 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-geopolitical-risk\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/risque-geopolitique-approche-quantitative-risque-pays\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"160\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-300x160.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-22543\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-18x10.png 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-200x107.png 200w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/risque-geopolitique-approche-quantitative-risque-pays\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tDans un monde d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 durable, une nouvelle lecture du risque pays\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tf\u00e9vrier 12, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/risque-geopolitique-approche-quantitative-risque-pays\/\" aria-label=\"En savoir plus sur Dans un monde d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 durable, une nouvelle lecture du risque pays\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s economy is entering a critical phase. After years of strong growth, structural weaknesses \u2014 from excessive debt and industrial overcapacity to demographic decline and trade tensions \u2014 are now converging. According to TAC ECONOMICS, these imbalances heighten the risk of a cyclical shock by 2027, as the country struggles to rebalance from investment-driven to consumption-led growth. With financial leverage at record levels and geopolitical pressures mounting, China\u2019s economic risks could reshape global markets over the coming years.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":27065,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China\u2019s economic balancing act: Rising risks of a cyclical shock in 2027 - TAC ECONOMICS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"TAC ECONOMICS warns of growing economic imbalances and a rising risk of a cyclical shock in China by 2027.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/fr\/china-cyclical-shock-risk-2027\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s economic balancing act: Rising risks of a cyclical shock in 2027 - 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