{"id":28475,"date":"2026-03-06T10:18:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T09:18:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/?p=28475"},"modified":"2026-03-06T10:50:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T09:50:46","slug":"emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"28475\" class=\"elementor elementor-28475\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cb3628e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"cb3628e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d2a48d8 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d2a48d8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d5caede e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d5caede\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6825b0d elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"6825b0d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Emerging Markets<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9b25a24 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9b25a24\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Emerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a510e0a elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"a510e0a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-96111f5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"96111f5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-098b2f8 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/2026\/03\/06\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-calendar\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-date\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<time>March 6, 2026<\/time>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-d3c01a0 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"about\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-tags\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-terms\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/category\/others\/\" class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list-item\">Emerging Markets<\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-44b19ae e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"44b19ae\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_motion_fx_scrolling&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_effect&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_range&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:{&quot;start&quot;:50,&quot;end&quot;:100}},&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_direction&quot;:&quot;out-in&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:4,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;background_motion_fx_devices&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;,&quot;mobile&quot;]}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d7175e0 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"d7175e0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-28491\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026.jpg 600w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-500x267.jpg 500w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-802fb0a e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"802fb0a\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4c095ad e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4c095ad\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9302dbd elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9302dbd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In our latest <em>Emerging Markets Monthly Comments (February 2026)<\/em>, TAC ECONOMICS highlights a major shift in the global risk landscape: overall country risk across Emerging Markets (EM) has declined significantly since its mid-2023 peak.<\/p><p>Our proprietary <strong>Country Risk Premium (CRP)<\/strong>, a comprehensive measure of macroeconomic, financial, political, governance, and structural risks, shows a 200bps reduction over two years, bringing the EM average to 408bps. This reflects:<\/p><ul><li>Stronger macro-financial fundamentals<\/li><li>Reduced external imbalances<\/li><li>More neutral monetary conditions<\/li><li>Lower global risk aversion toward EM assets<\/li><\/ul><p>However, this aggregate improvement masks growing <strong>fragmentation<\/strong>. Political and governance risks have risen in many countries, and an exceptional number of EM display early warning signals for potential shocks. In this environment, <strong>country selection is more critical than ever<\/strong>.<\/p><p>Below, we summarize key trends and illustrate them with selected country cases across major regions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-896ab30 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"896ab30\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Central &amp; Eastern Europe: Convergence, but rising dispersion<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0119669 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0119669\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0px;\">Central &amp; Eastern Europe has seen a steady improvement in aggregate risk, largely erasing the initial impact of the Russia\u2013Ukraine war. Yet, risk dispersion within the region has widened.<\/span><\/p><ul><li><strong>Poland<\/strong>: The CRP fell sharply to around 109bps, reflecting improved macro-financial conditions and stronger governance indicators. Nonetheless, geopolitical sensitivity remains elevated due to proximity to the war in Ukraine.<\/li><li><strong>Czech Republic<\/strong>: Now at a record-low CRP (63bps), supported by stronger growth dynamics and restored policy credibility.<\/li><li><strong>Turkey<\/strong>: Despite some improvement, risk remains elevated (464bps). Persistent inflation, limited FX reserve rebuilding, and renewed pressures in economic and political risk ratings constrain further progress.<\/li><li><strong>Montenegro<\/strong>: Significant CRP reduction, but early warning signals on activity and solvency highlight sensitivity to capital flows and commodity price volatility.<\/li><\/ul><p>Overall, while macro resilience has strengthened, cyclical and geopolitical vulnerabilities remain key transmission channels of risk.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bf07c56 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"bf07c56\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Central &amp; Eastern Europe: Convergence, but rising dispersion<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fdf623 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1fdf623\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Central &amp; Eastern Europe has seen a steady improvement in aggregate risk, largely erasing the initial impact of the Russia\u2013Ukraine war. Yet, risk dispersion within the region has widened.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Poland<\/strong>: The CRP fell sharply to around 109bps, reflecting improved macro-financial conditions and stronger governance indicators. Nonetheless, geopolitical sensitivity remains elevated due to proximity to the war in Ukraine.<\/li><li><strong>Czech Republic<\/strong>: Now at a record-low CRP (63bps), supported by stronger growth dynamics and restored policy credibility.<\/li><li><strong>Turkey<\/strong>: Despite some improvement, risk remains elevated (464bps). Persistent inflation, limited FX reserve rebuilding, and renewed pressures in economic and political risk ratings constrain further progress.<\/li><li><strong>Montenegro<\/strong>: Significant CRP reduction, but early warning signals on activity and solvency highlight sensitivity to capital flows and commodity price volatility.<\/li><\/ul><p>Overall, while macro resilience has strengthened, cyclical and geopolitical vulnerabilities remain key transmission channels of risk.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fbc701 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1fbc701\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Latin America: Macro recovery vs. political pressures<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-00cc6f6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"00cc6f6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Latin America\u2019s average CRP has declined markedly since 2023, with economic and financial risk ratings returning to long-term averages. Yet, political and governance risks have increased to their highest level in over a decade.<\/p><p>A growing dichotomy is evident:<\/p><p><strong>More resilient economies<\/strong> benefit from:<\/p><ul><li>Better external balances<\/li><li>Significant disinflation<\/li><li>Improved policy credibility<\/li><\/ul><p><strong>More vulnerable countries<\/strong> face:<\/p><ul><li>External debt constraints<\/li><li>Liquidity pressures<\/li><li>Elevated socio-political tensions<\/li><\/ul><p>Illustrative cases:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Colombia<\/strong>: Now in the low-risk category, supported by improved external accounts, stronger reserves, and robust domestic demand indicators.<\/li><li><strong>Peru<\/strong>: Solid macro framework and mining-driven growth but increasing institutional fragmentation and electoral uncertainty are overtaking macro strengths.<\/li><li><strong>Mexico<\/strong>: Economic risk is low and improving, yet political and geopolitical vulnerabilities, especially linked to relations with the U.S., limit the overall decline in risk pricing.<\/li><\/ul><p>The region illustrates clearly how political variables are increasingly driving risk differentiation.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b8a08c7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"b8a08c7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Asia: Low average risk, deep fragmentation<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8b8cddd elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8b8cddd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Asia maintains one of the lowest average CRPs (373bps), with several countries in the very low-risk category. Yet fragmentation is pronounced.<\/p><ul><li><strong>China<\/strong>: CRP remains broadly stable (398bps), but a new Watch List indication on economic activity signals heightened cyclical risks from late 2026 onward, with possible financial spillovers.<\/li><li><strong>Pakistan<\/strong>: Significant CRP reduction thanks to rebounding growth and improved risk premiums. However, external fragilities, weak buffers, and political tensions persist.<\/li><li><strong>Laos<\/strong>: Although risk has fallen dramatically from extreme levels, structural vulnerabilities remain acute (high external debt, weak reserves).<\/li><\/ul><p>Core ASEAN economies and <strong>India<\/strong> continue to benefit from resilient domestic demand and contained macro-financial risk.<\/p><p>In Asia, exposure to China, domestic political dynamics, and policy credibility create sharply differentiated trajectories.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-31b9cd5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"31b9cd5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Middle East &amp; North Africa (MENA): GCC anchors vs. fragile periphery<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ce754c5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ce754c5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The MENA region\u2019s average CRP has improved to 391bps, largely driven by hydrocarbon-rich GCC economies implementing credible economic reforms.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Oman<\/strong>: Now among the lowest-risk EM (178bps), supported by strong macro fundamentals, limited public debt, and improved governance metrics.<\/li><li><strong>Morocco<\/strong>: Strong improvement in both economic and governance indicators; GDP growth expected above 4% in 2026\u20132027, supported by rising reserves and vanishing inflation.<\/li><li><strong>Egypt<\/strong>: Risk has declined steadily following the 2024 currency devaluation, which restored competitiveness, though political risk remains elevated.<\/li><\/ul><p>However, structural divergence remains wide between reform-oriented GCC anchors and fragile economies facing socio-political and financial pressures.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e2c34e4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e2c34e4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Sub-Saharan Africa: Structural vulnerabilities persist<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1993188 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1993188\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Sub-Saharan Africa has also benefited from lower global risk aversion, with average CRP declining by 200bps since 2023. Yet, the region remains above the global EM average and displays widening dispersion.<\/p><p>Persistent vulnerabilities include:<\/p><ul><li>External deficits<\/li><li>Limited FX reserves<\/li><li>Debt servicing stress<\/li><li>Political instability<\/li><\/ul><p>Country highlights:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Ghana<\/strong>: Major improvement in both macro-financial and governance metrics, supported by tighter monetary policy, disinflation, and stronger reserves.<\/li><li><strong>Ivory Coast<\/strong>: Strengthened fiscal and external positions, supported by IMF and World Bank engagement, contributing to a medium-risk profile.<\/li><li><strong>Nigeria<\/strong>: Risk remains structurally high despite ambitious reforms, due to governance gaps, rising debt, and banking system FX exposure.<\/li><li><strong>South Africa<\/strong>: Relatively resilient profile thanks to diversified economy, deep financial markets, and stronger institutional capacity.<\/li><\/ul><p>The region underscores the importance of institutional strength and policy credibility as amplifiers or mitigators of macro-financial pressures.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e59e1ea elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e59e1ea\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Conclusion<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-01a4803 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"01a4803\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Emerging Markets have entered a new phase:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Lower aggregate risk<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Improved macro-financial resilience<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Declining global risk aversion<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p>But also:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Rising political and governance fragilities<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>More frequent early warning signals<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Widening intra-regional divergence<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p>In this context, EM investment strategies cannot rely on regional averages. Structural resilience, institutional credibility, and shock-absorption capacity are now decisive factors in differentiating risks \u2014 and opportunities \u2014 across countries.<\/p><p>At TAC ECONOMICS, our Country Risk Premium framework provides investors and corporates with the tools to navigate this increasingly fragmented EM landscape with precision and forward-looking insight.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d490fab e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"d490fab\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c22cf1c e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5c22cf1c\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-54d00003 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"54d00003\" 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data-widget_type=\"posts.classic\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-posts-container elementor-posts elementor-posts--skin-classic elementor-grid\" role=\"list\">\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-29179 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-webinaire\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/perspectives-economiques-economies-emergentes\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Webinaire-Emergents-042026-500x267.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-29147\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Webinaire-Emergents-042026-500x267.jpg 500w, 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https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tConflit au Moyen-Orient, p\u00e9trole et inflation\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tMarch 13, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Conflit au Moyen-Orient, p\u00e9trole et inflation\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-28475 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-others\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-500x267.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-28491\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-500x267.jpg 500w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tEmerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tMarch 6, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Emerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emerging Markets risk has declined significantly since 2023, with the average Country Risk Premium falling by 200bps as macro-financial conditions improved and global risk aversion eased. Yet this aggregate improvement hides growing fragmentation across regions, driven increasingly by political and governance vulnerabilities. In this environment, identifying country-specific risks and opportunities has become essential for investors and corporates operating in Emerging Markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":28491,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-others"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Emerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation - TAC ECONOMICS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Emerging Markets country risk is declining as macro-financial conditions improve, but rising political fragmentation is widening divergence across economies\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Emerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation - 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