{"id":26278,"date":"2025-06-17T17:01:38","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T15:01:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/?p=26278"},"modified":"2026-02-10T17:22:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T16:22:55","slug":"mexicos-economy-in-2025-between-trumps-tariffs-domestic-weakness-and-a-fragile-peso","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/mexicos-economy-in-2025-between-trumps-tariffs-domestic-weakness-and-a-fragile-peso\/","title":{"rendered":"Mexico\u2019s Economy in 2025: Between Trump\u2019s Tariffs, Domestic Weakness, and a Fragile Peso"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"26278\" class=\"elementor elementor-26278\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3936f2de e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3936f2de\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fcd77cf e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fcd77cf\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7253d407 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7253d407\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Mexico\u2019s Economy in 2025: Between Trump\u2019s Tariffs, Domestic Weakness, and a Fragile Peso<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7ffc341a elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"7ffc341a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d9d37b8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-post-info\" data-id=\"d9d37b8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"post-info.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"elementor-inline-items elementor-icon-list-items elementor-post-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-098b2f8 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"datePublished\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/2025\/06\/17\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-calendar\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-date\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<time>June 17, 2025<\/time>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li class=\"elementor-icon-list-item elementor-repeater-item-d3c01a0 elementor-inline-item\" itemprop=\"about\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"fas fa-tags\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-icon-list-text elementor-post-info__item elementor-post-info__item--type-terms\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/category\/others\/\" class=\"elementor-post-info__terms-list-item\">Emerging Markets<\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9395f23 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"9395f23\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_motion_fx_scrolling&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_effect&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_range&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:{&quot;start&quot;:50,&quot;end&quot;:100}},&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_direction&quot;:&quot;out-in&quot;,&quot;background_motion_fx_scale_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:4,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;background_motion_fx_devices&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;,&quot;mobile&quot;]}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5a0edc5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5a0edc5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Mexico-0625-e1755874743607.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-26279\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Mexico-0625-e1755874743607.jpg 600w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Mexico-0625-e1755874743607-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Mexico-0625-e1755874743607-18x10.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eefa04b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"eefa04b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-faf90b5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"faf90b5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Mexico has entered 2025 under a cloud of economic and political uncertainty. According to <strong>TAC ECONOMICS<\/strong>, the country is grappling with <strong>sluggish growth, heightened financial pressures, and escalating trade tensions with the United States<\/strong>. GDP is projected to stagnate at <strong>0.0% in 2025<\/strong>, before a modest recovery in 2026.<\/p><p>The interplay between external shocks \u2014 most notably new <strong>U.S. tariffs under President Trump<\/strong> \u2014 and domestic challenges such as slowing consumption, weak investment, and constrained fiscal policy, has created one of Mexico\u2019s toughest macro-financial environments in recent decades.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-53a3ac8 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"53a3ac8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c6f8f5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5c6f8f5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The Trump Factor: Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-847fa38 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"847fa38\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>On <strong>March 4, 2025<\/strong>, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a <strong>25% tariff on most goods imported from Mexico<\/strong>, dealing a direct blow to the country\u2019s export engine.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Export dependency<\/strong>: Mexico sends around <strong>80% of its exports<\/strong> to the U.S., making it exceptionally vulnerable.<\/li><li><strong>Sectoral impact<\/strong>: Key industries \u2014 especially <strong>automotive manufacturing and electrical equipment<\/strong> \u2014 face sharp disruptions.<\/li><li><strong>USMCA review<\/strong>: Originally scheduled for 2026, the <strong>United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement<\/strong> review is being brought forward to mid-2025. This move, framed as a negotiation tool by Washington, could further alter trade dynamics.<\/li><\/ul><p>This development was hardly unexpected: Mexico ranks <strong>#1 in TAC ECONOMICS\u2019 Trump Vulnerability Index<\/strong>, which assesses countries\u2019 exposure to U.S. foreign policy based on trade dependence, ideological alignment, and immigration ties. With remittances from Mexican workers abroad totaling <strong>USD 65 billion in 2024<\/strong>, both households and the broader economy are highly sensitive to shifts in U.S. policy.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-21ecd67 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"21ecd67\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-42c0ca3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"42c0ca3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Macroeconomic Outlook: A \u201cLost Year\u201d for Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c0d9bae elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c0d9bae\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Mexico\u2019s <strong>Country Risk Premium<\/strong> currently stands at <strong>384 basis points<\/strong> (June 2025) \u2014 higher than the average for the top 10 emerging markets (324bp). This reflects a combination of <strong>economic-financial vulnerabilities<\/strong> and <strong>political-governance risks<\/strong>.<\/p><p><strong>Key Economic Challenges in 2025<\/strong><\/p><ol><li><strong>GDP stagnation<\/strong>: Output is forecast at <strong>0.0% growth<\/strong> this year, as trade shocks ripple through the economy.<\/li><li><strong>Industrial contraction<\/strong>: Manufacturing activity remains in decline. The <strong>PMI has been below 50 since July 2024<\/strong>, reflecting weak demand and disrupted shipments to the U.S.<\/li><li><strong>Private consumption slowdown<\/strong>: Weaker real wages and sluggish job creation are undermining household spending.<\/li><li><strong>Investment slump<\/strong>: Business confidence is constrained by policy uncertainty, tariffs, and fiscal consolidation under the new administration.<\/li><\/ol>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8443d10 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8443d10\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d8ee96f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"d8ee96f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Fiscal Constraints<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f4e2bec elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f4e2bec\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Inflationary pressures have resurfaced in 2025, complicating the Central Bank\u2019s efforts to support growth.<\/p><ul><li><strong>Inflation trends<\/strong>: Consumer prices rose to <strong>+4.4% y\/y in April 2025<\/strong>, reversing the disinflation observed in 2023\u201324. Rising food prices are a key driver.<\/li><li><strong>Banxico policy<\/strong>: Since March 2024, Banxico has cut rates by <strong>275bps<\/strong>, bringing the policy rate down to <strong>8.5% in May 2025<\/strong>. More cuts are expected, likely toward <strong>7.5% by year-end<\/strong>, though the pace will be cautious given inflation risks.<\/li><li><strong>Fiscal policy limits<\/strong>: The new government is struggling with fiscal consolidation, leaving little room for countercyclical spending.<\/li><\/ul><p>This policy mix points to <strong>modest monetary easing<\/strong> but limited fiscal support \u2014 insufficient to reignite demand in the short term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-597e3ad e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"597e3ad\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dc2e21e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"dc2e21e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Mexican Peso Outlook: Volatility Ahead<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2b4a794 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2b4a794\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Currency markets tell a complex story. Despite weak fundamentals, the <strong>Peso (MXN)<\/strong> appreciated in early 2025, reaching <strong>USD\/MXN 19 in June<\/strong> \u2014 largely due to a global U.S. dollar depreciation.<\/p><p>However, this resilience is unlikely to last:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Interest rate differentials<\/strong> with the U.S. are narrowing, reducing the peso\u2019s yield appeal.<\/li><li><strong>Tariff uncertainty<\/strong> will keep pressure on capital flows.<\/li><li><strong>Risk of volatility<\/strong> remains high, with the peso expected to drift closer to <strong>USD\/MXN 20<\/strong> in the coming months.<\/li><\/ul><p>For businesses and investors, this implies a more challenging hedging environment and potential episodes of financial instability.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57e4b3e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"57e4b3e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9350610 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9350610\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Medium-Term Outlook: Glimmers of Improvement<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b3b872e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b3b872e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>While 2025 looks bleak, TAC ECONOMICS sees signs of improvement on the horizon:<\/p><ul><li><strong>Economic &amp; Financial risk metrics<\/strong> have shown visible improvement since late 2024, typically a leading indicator of recovery within two years.<\/li><li><strong>Political &amp; Governance risk ratings<\/strong> peaked in 2022 and have since moderated, suggesting reduced domestic political volatility.<\/li><li><strong>2026 forecast<\/strong>: GDP growth is projected to return to positive territory at <strong>+0.8%<\/strong>, though still below Mexico\u2019s long-term potential.<\/li><\/ul><p>The road to recovery will depend heavily on the outcome of trade negotiations with Washington, the trajectory of global demand, and Mexico\u2019s ability to restore investor confidence.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9058f6d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"9058f6d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8a46683 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8a46683\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Conclusion: Navigating an Uncertain 2025<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9004551 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9004551\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Mexico\u2019s economy in 2025 sits at a crossroads: squeezed between <strong>external shocks from U.S. tariffs<\/strong>, <strong>domestic economic fragility<\/strong>, and a <strong>volatile peso<\/strong>. With GDP growth stalled and confidence eroding, policymakers face an uphill battle to stabilize conditions before recovery emerges in 2026.<\/p><p>For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the key will be <strong>managing risk exposure<\/strong> \u2014 whether through currency hedging, diversifying export markets, or preparing for renewed trade negotiations under USMCA.<\/p><p>In short: <strong>2025 may be a lost year, but it could lay the groundwork for recovery if Mexico successfully adapts to the new global and regional trade realities.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7a3f619 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"7a3f619\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d7f8350 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d7f8350\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8fe5339 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8fe5339\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-01bd532 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"01bd532\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Latest posts<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c66e620 elementor-grid-3 elementor-grid-tablet-2 elementor-grid-mobile-1 elementor-posts--thumbnail-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-posts\" data-id=\"c66e620\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;classic_columns&quot;:&quot;3&quot;,&quot;classic_columns_tablet&quot;:&quot;2&quot;,&quot;classic_columns_mobile&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;classic_row_gap&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:35,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;classic_row_gap_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;classic_row_gap_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"posts.classic\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-posts-container elementor-posts elementor-posts--skin-classic elementor-grid\" role=\"list\">\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-29076 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-media\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326-500x267.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-29077\" alt=\"Lea Dauphas sur le plateau BFM 130326\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326-500x267.jpg 500w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BFM-170326.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tConflit au Moyen-Orient, p\u00e9trole et inflation\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tMarch 13, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/middle-east-oil-shock-inflation-global-impact\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Conflit au Moyen-Orient, p\u00e9trole et inflation\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-28475 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-others\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-500x267.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-28491\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-500x267.jpg 500w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Country-Risk-Map-February-2026.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tEmerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tMarch 6, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/emerging-markets-risk-fragmentation-2026\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Emerging Markets: Lower aggregate risk, higher fragmentation\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"elementor-post elementor-grid-item post-28287 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-geopolitical-risk\" role=\"listitem\">\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail__link\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/risque-geopolitique-approche-quantitative-risque-pays\/\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__thumbnail\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"160\" src=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-300x160.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-22543\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-18x10.png 18w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique-200x107.png 200w, https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Offre-geopolitique.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__text\">\n\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-post__title\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/risque-geopolitique-approche-quantitative-risque-pays\/\" >\n\t\t\t\tDans un monde d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 durable, une nouvelle lecture du risque pays\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__meta-data\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-post-date\">\n\t\t\tFebruary 12, 2026\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-post__read-more-wrapper\">\n\t\t\n\t\t<a class=\"elementor-post__read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/risque-geopolitique-approche-quantitative-risque-pays\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Dans un monde d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 durable, une nouvelle lecture du risque pays\" tabindex=\"-1\" >\n\t\t\tRead More \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mexico has entered 2025 under a cloud of economic and political uncertainty. According to TAC ECONOMICS, the country is grappling with sluggish growth, heightened financial pressures, and escalating trade tensions with the United States. GDP is projected to stagnate at 0.0% in 2025, before a modest recovery in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":26279,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-others"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mexico\u2019s Economy in 2025: Between Trump\u2019s Tariffs, Domestic Weakness, and a Fragile Peso - TAC ECONOMICS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore Mexico&#039;s economic outlook for 2025 amid Trump&#039;s 25% tariffs, domestic challenges, and a volatile peso.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/taceconomics.com\/en\/mexicos-economy-in-2025-between-trumps-tariffs-domestic-weakness-and-a-fragile-peso\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mexico\u2019s Economy in 2025: Between Trump\u2019s Tariffs, Domestic Weakness, and a Fragile Peso - 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