Each quarter, the team presents an update on the results of its models. Discover our global scenario and the main risks that will affect developed economies. Below some key insights from our latest publication:
A complex political agenda combined to a macroeconomic end-of-cycle situation.
A return to the inflation targets with an open question about the trajectory in 2025.
The focus has shifted from monitoring inflation to anticipating a soft landing, where economic activity would gradually slow, allowing excessive demand pressures to ease.
What trajectories for the major economies? A slowdown in consumer spending anticipated for the US, moderate growth for the Eurozone, the UK facing the impact of tight monetary policy and potential risks of recession, and robust but decelerating growth for Japan.
Central Bank pivot: easing cycle prospects in 2024 (expected in May 2024 for the Federal Reserve, followed by the ECB and BoE in June 2024) with limited bond yield decrease.
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